So, Applied Digital. You’ve probably seen the ticker, APLD, getting passed around on Stocktwits and X like some hot new meme, and I get it. The stock pops 10% in a day, hits a four-year high, and suddenly every finance bro with a Robinhood account is a genius.
The trigger, offcourse, was some analyst at Roth Capital waking up and deciding to slap a $43 price target on this thing. A near-double from where it was. That’s like pouring gasoline on a bonfire. The herd sees a number like that and stampedes, no questions asked.
And the story they’re selling is a good one, I’ll give them that.
The Perfect Story... A Little Too Perfect
The AI Gold Rush Shovel Salesman
Applied Digital doesn’t make the AI. They’re not building the next chatbot that will steal my job. They do something much more basic, and potentially much more profitable: they build the damn server farms. The digital infrastructure. The picks and shovels for the great AI gold rush of the 2020s.
They build these massive data centers, stuff them full of high-performance GPUs, and then lease them out to companies like CoreWeave or, they hope, some other “hyperscaler” with deep pockets. They’ve got Forge 1 already leased out, bringing in steady cash. They’re building Forge 2. They’ve got a massive 280-megawatt site called Harwood that could host another huge deal.
The narrative is clean. AI needs more and more computing power. APLD provides that power. Demand goes up, prices go up, stock goes to the moon. Simple.
It's the kind of story that's easy to understand and even easier to get excited about. It feels tangible. You can almost smell the hot electronics and hear the hum of a million server fans working overtime to power the future. It’s the infrastructure play, the sure bet in a world of speculative software nonsense.
This is a great story. No, ‘great’ doesn’t cover it—it’s a perfect story for this market. It’s got buzzwords, a clear growth path, and just enough technical jargon to make retail investors feel like they’ve uncovered a hidden gem.
So why does it leave a bad taste in my mouth?
If the Future's So Bright, Why Are Insiders Cashing Out?
So, About That “Confidence”…
While the internet is high-fiving itself over this stock, I took a look at something a little less exciting than a price chart: insider trading filings.
And what I found was… interesting.
In the last six months, insiders at Applied Digital have made exactly zero open-market purchases of their own company's stock. None. But they’ve been selling. Oh boy, have they been selling.
Let’s run the numbers, shall we?
- The CEO, Wes Cummins? Dumped 400,000 shares for over $6 million.
- The CFO, Mohammad Mohmand? Cashed out 75,000 shares for over $1.1 million.
- Chuck Hastings, another insider? Sold 130,000 shares for nearly $1.8 million.
- And the list goes on. Richard Nottenburg, Douglas Miller, Rachel Lee, Ella Benson… all selling. A total of 11 sales, zero buys.
I’m just a cynical columnist, not a financial advisor, but this ain’t rocket science. When the people who run the company, who live and breathe this business every single day, are consistently taking millions of dollars off the table, what message does that send?
They’re telling you the story about the bright future of AI infrastructure while their brokers are hitting the “sell” button so hard it’s a wonder the key hasn’t broken. It’s like a chef telling you how amazing his new restaurant is while you see him sneaking out the back to eat at the place across the street.
And don’t give me that “they’re just diversifying” line. That’s the oldest, most tired excuse in the book. When you truly believe your company is on the verge of a massive breakout, you don’t systematically cash out. You just don’t.
The whole thing feels like a magic trick. They want you to watch the flashy analyst upgrade with one hand, while they quietly pocket your money with the other. It’s honestly exhausting trying to keep up. It feels like the entire market is just one big, loud, stupid casino now, where the dealers all have an ace up their sleeve and the house always, always wins.
"Strong Buy" or Strong B.S.?
The Wall Street Math Problem
Then you have the analysts. The so-called experts.
One source says the consensus is a “Strong Buy” based on seven buys and one sell. Another says it’s nine buys and zero sells. Who knows. But let’s look at the price targets. Roth Capital is screaming $43. But H.C. Wainwright says $20. Needham says $16. The median target is just $16.
Wait a second. The median analyst target is a solid 40% below where the stock is trading after this pop?
So let me get this straight. The consensus is “Strong Buy,” but the average expectation is that you’ll lose money? What kind of galaxy-brain logic is that? It’s pure noise. It’s a marketing gimmick designed to get a firm’s name in the headlines and generate trading commissions. An analyst from one firm drops an insane, outlier target, the algorithms pick it up, the stock rips, and everyone pretends it’s based on some profound insight. And honestly…
Maybe I’m the crazy one. Maybe the CEO just really needed a new mansion and the CFO had tuition to pay. Maybe the stock really is going to $43 and beyond, and all these insiders are going to be kicking themselves. It’s possible. In a market this disconnected from reality, anything is.
But I doubt it.
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Follow the Money, Not the Hype
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Look, I don't care what some analyst report says or how bullish the sentiment is on Stocktwits. To me, it’s simple. When the people with the corner offices, the ones who see the numbers before anyone else, are all heading for the exit at the same time, you pay attention. The story they’re selling and the actions they’re taking are two completely different things. And in my book, actions always tell the real story.
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